Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 8.242791 9.728382 11.366971 13.303134 15.522862 17.982430 20.908172
2024-12-29 5.934468 7.831565 10.128510 13.092632 16.792265 21.231641 26.932990
2025-01-05 4.370137 6.349162 8.942660 12.543518 17.358896 23.514990 31.908189
2025-01-12 3.490690 5.510345 8.341881 12.521455 18.436710 26.395974 37.776503
2025-01-19 2.854663 4.858157 7.842079 12.490794 19.401711 29.116876 43.578184
2025-01-26 2.548128 4.626366 7.885244 13.197841 21.424475 33.411668 51.846661
2025-02-02 2.269409 4.378936 7.849621 13.748743 23.229096 37.496902 60.087991
2025-02-09 2.054658 4.195422 7.876930 14.377099 25.179023 41.912162 69.100219
2025-02-16 1.769699 3.832101 7.544098 14.356837 26.066461 44.736457 75.858507
2025-02-23 1.471981 3.387442 7.000077 13.896433 26.158600 46.279810 80.682051
2025-03-02 1.213124 2.968479 6.437592 13.322428 25.976978 47.329189 84.738301
2025-03-09 1.061771 2.744107 6.208981 13.322865 26.779177 50.034318 91.634750
2025-03-16 0.919911 2.517754 5.952869 13.256494 27.482336 52.670829 98.684628
2025-03-23 0.803290 2.326388 5.740988 13.250647 28.294480 55.553461 106.347894
2025-03-30 0.666359 2.055100 5.315763 12.756416 28.121847 56.662426 110.983972
2025-04-06 0.584490 1.906060 5.137663 12.752638 28.895709 59.524366 118.882068
2025-04-13 0.512595 1.767269 4.961002 12.727174 29.615488 62.321943 126.815084
2025-04-20 0.490793 1.766029 5.113014 13.447739 31.922513 68.253622 140.824103
2025-04-27 0.461770 1.737178 5.192169 14.008341 33.935275 73.736043 154.280657
2025-05-04 0.438448 1.720925 5.300685 14.647252 36.161927 79.760242 169.063489
2025-05-11 0.388803 1.608552 5.141103 14.626713 36.950600 82.986781 178.666655
2025-05-18 0.328622 1.444572 4.815442 14.158725 36.701790 84.106927 184.240350
2025-05-25 0.273408 1.281318 4.462706 13.575204 36.130656 84.517017 188.418382